Pandemics Resource Centre

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Actuaries are risk professionals. We specialise in managing the risk of future uncertainties across many areas, including pandemics but also general, life and health insurance, climate change, natural disasters, retirement incomes and wealth management. These unforeseen events cause disruptions throughout local and global markets, and the Institute actively engages in public policy debates to help manage the uncertainty of future financial outcomes. Our full Public Policy statement can be viewed here

In order to have valuable public policy contributions that truly reflect the views of the profession, we encourage members to take an interest in public policy and to participate in the policy development process. If you would like to contribute to the Pandemics Resource Centre, please contact Comms@actuaries.asn.au.

On this page:

  • Actuaries Institute COVID-19 Blog
  • Australian articles 
  • Australian papers and presentations 
  • Global articles and papers 
  • Useful online links
  • How to stay safe and reduce risk of infection


Actuaries Institute COVID-19 Blog


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For media inquiries, please contact:
Michelle Innis 
P&L Corporate Communications 
M +61 (0) 414 999 693
P +61 (0) 2 9231 5411
As the status of COVID-19 escalates quickly, the Institute has set up the COVID-19 blog - a reporting platform to keep members and the public up to date with the status of the virus, impacts on our industries and other relevant information. 

Articles written by the members of the Actuaries Institute are intended to provide an actuarial perspective and not a medical one.  COVID-19 is a rapidly evolving health crisis and data is incomplete. Therefore, perspectives provided are themselves based on incomplete information.  Readers should always follow medical advice and always keep themselves and others safe.

Blog Articles

COVID-19 BLOG AHS #3 – Author – Alex Stitt
31 Mar 2020

An update on the pandemic dynamics, front-line case study in communication and risk management. and new, high volume data source on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Thoughts for Life Insurance Actuaries - Jennifer Lang, Michael Dermody, Colin Yellowlees and Alex Stitt
27 Mar 2020

This COVID-19 post is for those advising life insurers. It covers mostly financial considerations. In this fast moving environment, this post provides more questions than answers, to help actuaries think through as many angles as possible. 

Managing the Invisible Virus Pandemic – learnings from the world
25 Mar 2020

This article looks at the spread of COVID-19 and how some countries are struggling with and combatting the disease. It provides some general advice on how persons and countries can combat this disease.

COVID-19 BLOG #2 – Author – Alex Stitt
24 Mar 2020

Pandemic Dynamics, 'retrospective' on border control and update on economic prognoses.

The Effects of COVID-19 on the Australian Health System and PHI
20 Mar 2020

From our improving understanding of how the SARS-COV-2 virus is spread and how it emerges in different segments of the population as the COVID-19 disease, this article explores the likely effect on different sectors of the health system.

Status Update of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak
20 Mar 2020

Three weeks ago, Zeming Yu explored the development of confirmed cases and death rates across the globe using the data visualisation software Tableau. What has changed over the last three weeks? Let’s find out.

COVID-19 BLOG #1 – Author: Alex Stitt
17 Mar 2020

As the nation steps up in tackling the Covid-19 situation, this dedicated blog series will cover updates of the pandemic as well as related issues that may impact our industries.

Thoughts for General Insurance Actuaries
17 Mar 2020

As alert levels for Covid-19 heighten and risk management strategies are put in place, there is an uneasy level of uncertainty actuaries and businesses are facing. Estelle Pearson, Principal at Finity Consulting, writes about what this pandemic situation means for General Insurance actuaries.

COVID-19 4 March – Status Update
9 Mar 2020

The state of the coronavirus continues to develop across the globe. Author and speaker at the upcoming Summit, Alex Stitt, provides a status update of his Covid-19 article from February. 

Coronavirus outbreak — five questions to ask big data
5 Mar 2020

Let’s explore the scale of the largest quarantine ever attempted in human history using big data. Zeming Yu uses the Baidu data platform to illustrate some interesting visualisations of movement due to the Coronavirus. 

Finding Positivity and Opportunities under COVID-19 – report from Hong Kong
2 Mar 2020

Iris Lun shares her experience about what it’s really like to be living in Hong Kong during the Coronavirus outbreak and if any positives can be found during this time of uncertainty.

Coronavirus – What every actuary advising an Australian financial services organisation should know
13 Feb 2020

In this article, Alex Stitt provides an overview of what is currently known about the 2019-nCoV outbreak and what actuaries advising financial services organisations (FSOs) should be thinking about.

Useful resources

Australia - ARTICLES, PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS

Articles

Using retirement money to solve today's problems
Rice Warner - 27 March 2020

Article about the early release on superannuation.  Some funds could lose up to 10% of their members and need to sell assets at depressed prices to support liquidity. 

What it means for super funds - Newsletter

Rice Warner - 19 March 2020

Rice Warner has published a detailed report on how the current virus will affect our super funds and the economy. 

The steps you should take to prepare for a coronavirus outbreak, according to a risk expert
Business Insider - 28 Feb 2020

In this article, Alex Stitt is interviewed to provide a perspective on how we can prepare for the developing pandemic.

Pandemics – some reading
Actuarial Eye - 9 Feb 2020

Actuary and author, Jennifer Lang, provides a summary of some interesting resources for reading and information on the current virus. 

Papers and Presentations

Pandemic Risk 'Life Insurer’s Black Swan'
Prepared by Yan Sun and Pierre Vende Aon Benfield
Presented to the Institute of Actuaries of Australia Summit 2013

This study considers the nature of flu pandemics and their impact on insurance. The material suggests issues to address when considering modelling assumptions and key risks.

Pandemic Risk 'Life Insurer’s Black Swan' - In the Actuaries Magazine - page 16
Prepared by Yan Sun and Pierre Vende Aon Benfield

This study considers the nature of flu pandemics and their impact on insurance. The material suggests issues to address when considering modelling assumptions and key risks.

PANDEMIC: What every Actuary advising an Australian financial services organisation should know

Prepared by Alexander Stitt
Presented to the Institute of Actuaries of Australia Financial Services Forum May 2006 

Brings together in a fairly concise but comprehensive manner the most important things a finance professional advising an Australian financial services organisation needs to know about pandemics in general.

Global - ARTICLES, PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS

Articles 


IFoA Epidemics and Pandemics Hub
Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - 2020

This page provides a range of resources related to the current COVID-19 and pandemics.

COVID-19 Resources
American Academy of Actuaries - 2020

The American Academy of Actuaries knows that actuaries and the general public are looking for resources related to COVID-19. To meet those needs, this page provides information on some public resources. 

COVID-19: The Property-Casualty Perspective
Casualty Actuarial Society Brief - 2020

This research brief looks at past pandemics and assesses possible impacts on property casualty. 

COVID-19: What we know, what we're still learning… and what it all means for insurers
Swiss Re
The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression
Imperial College London‌ - 26 March 2020

The world faces a severe and acute public health emergency due to the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. Analysis highlights the challenging decisions faced by all governments in the coming weeks and months, but demonstrates the extent to which rapid, decisive and collective action now could save millions of lives.

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
Imperial College London‌ - 24 March 2020

The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. Here, we estimate transmissibility from reported cases and compare those estimates with daily data on within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. 

BENCHMARKING COVID-19 - AN ACTUARIAL PERSPECTIVE
Oliver Wyman - 19 March 2020

Leveraging publicly available information and the insights of specialists across Oliver Wyman, including those that helped create the original US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) pandemic response protocols, here are some actuarial considerations to assist insurers assessing COVID-19’s potential impact to their business.

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to"flatten the curve"
The Washington Post - 14 March 2020

An Actuary Assesses COVID-19
Retirement Income Journal - 12 March 2020 Issue

A mortality and longevity expert at Willis Towers Watson writes that 'the variability of the mortality impact by age makes the impact [of the coronavirus] highly variable by type of insurer.

Impact of COVID-19
Society of Actuaries Research Brief - 10 March 2020

This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the COVID-19 epidemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.

The SOA Explores the Role of Actuaries in the Face of the COVID-19 Situation
Society of Actuaries - March 2020

R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA managing director of Research for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) explains the many roles actuaries can have as COVID-19 spreads around the world.

Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry
Society of Actuaries - March 2020

Sponsored by the Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Risk Management Section's Research Team, Jim Toole of MBA Actuaries evaluates the financial effects of different flu pandemic scenarios on the U.S. Life Insurance industry. 

QUANTIFYING PANDEMIC RISK
The Actuary Magazine 2015

Following the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, actuaries Doug Fullam and Nita Madhav write about the importance of quantifying risk using stochastic mortality and morbidity modeling.

Pandemics Edition
IFOA Longevity Bulletin 2015

A dedicated bulletin including a number of articles and case studies of pandemics. Case studies include the Spanish Flu, HIV/AIDS and Ebola.

Papers and Presentations

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Prepared by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (UK)

IAA Presentation - Life Section Webinar – Lessons from Recent and Historical Epidemics: Bugs, Behavior, and Beyond!
By Dave Rengachary, MD, DBIM, FALU, FLMI SVP and Chief Medical Director, US Mortality Markets RGA

Mini Pandemics 
Prepared by Siao Wearn Leong and Greg Solomon 
Presented to 2018 Asia Pacific Symposium

Assessing the Impact of a Pandemic on the Life Insurance Industry in South Africa
Prepared by André Dreyer, Grete Kritzinger, Jethro De Decker
Presented to the 1st IAA Life Colloquium 10 – 13 June, 2007 Stockholm, Sweden

Explores how a pandemic can develop from the bird flu, what a pandemic can look like, and what the likelihood is that we will have to deal with a pandemic in the coming years. Also explores ‘what if’ scenario modelling for pandemics. Concludes with implications for life, general and health insurers, pension providers and reinsurers.

Actuarial reflections on pandemic risk and its consequences
EUROPEAN ACTUARIAL CONSULTATIVE GROUP May 2006

This paper considers the history and frequency of influenza pandemics and examines the capacity of the South African insurance industry to absorb pandemic impacts.

 

Online resources

The Institute continues to take the COVID-19 risk very seriously. Our highest priority remains the health of our members, volunteers and the HQ Team. Our full policy regarding COVID-19 can be found here.

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